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Within a few weeks, the pillars of that alliance collapsed.

Bashar al-Assad’s departure from Syria is the latest strategic catastrophe that will force Iran to rethink decades-old security policies, just as the country also faces the election of newly elected President Donald Trump and his promises of new pressure on Tehran.

Assad’s removal is also the culmination so far in a cascade of events catalyzed by the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 last year, which resulted in the most fundamental change in Iran’s security landscape since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. the overthrow of Saddam Hussein ultimately presented Iran with opportunities, this time Tehran is at a disadvantage.

In more than a year of attacks, Israel has devastated Hamas, Iran’s main Palestinian ally. Since September, Israel has killed most of the leadership of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that is Iran’s most powerful ally, and sent its remaining top commanders into hiding. Assad’s overthrow will destroy the remaining front line of Iran’s so-called “forward defense,” said Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project.

“The Islamic Republic thought that Hamas’ attack on October 7 was a turning point in history. That is true, but in the complete opposite direction of what the country was hoping for,” he said. “The dominoes for the Western Front have fallen one after another.”

Syria was Iran’s only ally in the Middle East. More importantly, it gave Iran land access to Hezbollah, the center of its self-proclaimed “axis of resistance,” which, thanks to Tehran’s support, became the best-armed non-state actor in the world.

“There is no axis of resistance without access to Hezbollah,” Vaez said.

Iran is grappling with this new security landscape at a time when its spiritual leadership is aging, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei turning 86 next year. The Islamic government’s popularity at home is waning, and its arch-enemy Israel is being emboldened.

The setbacks of the past year have raised concerns that Iran could accelerate its nuclear program to restore deterrence against foreign attacks. For months, Iranian officials have openly debated whether to step up their nuclear efforts and whether to reconsider Khamenei’s two-decade pledge not to acquire weapons of mass destruction.

A US intelligence report released last week pointed to increasing risks from an Iranian decision to build a bomb. The UN atomic agency said Friday that Iran has begun a major expansion of its production of highly enriched uranium. It warned that without new monitoring arrangements with Tehran, the increased production could make it difficult for them to ensure Iran does not produce weapons-grade enriched uranium or divert fissile material.

As Trump returns to power, Iran has said it is willing to talk about its enrichment activities but has given no sign that it is willing to negotiate over its regional activities, including support for militias and its missile program, which Trump first term of office. insisted that any nuclear talks should also include.

The removal of Hamas and Hezbollah as direct threats to Israel reduced the deterrent Iran previously had against Israeli attacks. Israel launched two rounds of direct airstrikes against Iran earlier this year, hitting military facilities and disabling Russian-supplied air defense systems. Israel also killed commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

Ultimately, Tehran openly abandoned Assad after defending his rule through more than a decade of civil war, said Norman Roule, the top U.S. intelligence official for Iran from 2008 to 2017.

“For example, Israel killed a generation of Hezbollah and IRGC commanders with Syrian expertise, and they took bureaucratic networks and coordination capacity to their graves,” Roule said. The collapse of the Assad regime, he added, was a “strategic blow of historic proportions.” for Iran.

Biggest loser: Hezbollah

Iran has already indicated that it will try to maintain its influence in Syria. Iran’s Foreign Ministry called on Sunday for the formation of a government that represents all Syrians, saying relations between the two countries have a long, friendly history.

“These relations are expected to continue with the two countries’ wise and far-sighted approach based on common interests,” the report said.

However, the first signs from post-Assad Syria were not kind. Many Syrians hold Tehran, along with Hezbollah, responsible for aiding Assad’s oppression. While rebels spared the Russian embassy after entering Damascus, they looted the Iranian mission.

While Syria’s future is in flux, it is unlikely that any leadership “will support Iran’s objectives in the way that an Assad-controlled Syrian national government might,” said Sam Heller, a Syria expert at Century International, a progressive think tank.

The loss of Syria will also have economic consequences for sanctions-ridden Iran. In 2023 alone, Syria imported nearly 40 million barrels of oil from Iran, according to the online Syria Report, which monitors the Syrian economy. Syria paid for the oil through lines of credit, and the total debt to Iran is estimated by Iranian lawmakers at tens of billions of dollars.

For Hezbollah, a US-designated terrorist organization, Syria provided a financial and logistical lifeline. The group profited from smuggling Iranian oil and other goods, seizing property and controlling trade routes. According to Syrian activists, it collected scrap metal from bombed villages for weapons production.

Hezbollah also profited from drug trafficking, particularly the amphetamine-like captagon, which is produced in Syria’s deserts and worth an estimated $6 billion in trade, largely controlled by a Syrian army division commanded by Bashar al-Assad’s brother Maher al-Assad.

“The biggest loser will be Hezbollah, not just politically but also economically,” said Haid Haid, a consulting associate fellow at Chatham House.

Future foothold

Hezbollah, Hamas and Assad formed the front line in what Iran calls its “forward defense doctrine.” Its collapse now turns the spotlight on Iran’s immediate neighbor, Iraq, a vital conduit for Tehran’s economic activities, including sanctions evasion, and the most urgent After the 2003 US invasion, Iran built networks of loyal, mainly Shia militias that enabled the country to project military and political power abroad. Many of its militias from Syria withdrew to Iraq In light of the rebel advance, Iran will now focus on Iraq to keep conflict at bay, said Renad Mansour, project director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House.

“What happened with Hezbollah, what happened with Hamas, and even what happened with Assad has been peripheral to some extent. Iraq is much closer to home,” he said.

It is fair to say that Iran’s relationship with Syria goes deeper than its ties with Assad. Syria was the first Arab state to recognize the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, and the two have been strategic allies since the 1980s. Iran has built loyalty across the region, partly with cash and weapons, but also by leveraging widespread opposition to American and Israeli dominance.

These fundamental doubts still persist, and Iran remains the only Muslim state in the Middle East that openly confronts Israel and supports the Palestinian cause in a serious way, says Foad Izadi, professor at the University of Tehran. Iran has historically gained a foothold in divided states, and may be able to maintain some influence in Syria regardless of the country’s political future.

“A democratic Syrian government will not be friendly to Israel, but will support the Palestinian cause,” he said. “And if chaos arises and Syria turns into a new Libya, then that is also something Iran can do. to manage.”

Iran also remains a capable military force with more than 100,000 militia fighters across the region, thousands of its own elite troops and hardliners in charge inside Iran, said Roule, the former US intelligence official.

“The Houthis (in Yemen) are more powerful than ever. It appears that Hezbollah will survive to reestablish itself in Lebanon. Even Hamas could recover,” he said. “To ensure that Iran’s setback becomes permanent, a regional and international plan is needed to prevent Tehran from rebuilding its logistics and training lines with proxy remnants.”

Laurence Norman contributed to this article.

Write to Sune Engel Rasmussen at [email protected]