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  • February 18, 2025
Analysis: Brazil’s left sits in the long shadow of ailing patriarch Lula

Analysis: Brazil’s left sits in the long shadow of ailing patriarch Lula

By Anthony Boedel

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Emergency surgery to relieve a brain haemorrhage has raised questions in Brazil about President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s short-term agenda – and the vacuum he would leave on the left if he does not run for re-election in 2026 .

The 79-year-old Lula, Brazil’s most popular politician, is halfway through his third non-consecutive term as president, and his health has become a concern since a fall at home in October forced him to limit travel. He was rushed to a hospital in Sao Paulo overnight to have blood drained from his head, doctors said Tuesday.

Lula is known for centralizing key policy decisions and negotiating directly with lawmakers. Lula’s health care concerns come at a delicate time for his minority government, which is trying to push a package of spending cuts and tax reforms through Congress, a process that has kept financial markets on edge. .

Political analyst Creomar de Souza emphasized the tense moment for Lula’s government: “They have to approve a whole series of measures within two weeks. Lula is key to decision-making and reaching agreements with lawmakers.”

The more existential question hanging over the ruling Workers’ Party is whether Lula can run for re-election in 2026. Given his precarious health and advanced age, concerns are growing among allies about who could fill his shoes if necessary.

Lula suggested in a TV interview last month that he would like to see a political “renovation” in the next elections, but if his candidacy is needed to defeat the far right, then “of course I am ready to run.”

A poor performance by Lula’s Workers’ Party in this year’s municipal elections underlined for many analysts that his coalition’s chances are high if he doesn’t get on the ballot.

Carlos Melo, a politics professor at Sao Paulo’s Insper business school, said the ruling party is not ready to function without Lula’s leadership: “Not in 2026, or even after that,” he said.

“For now, they would be completely doomed because Lula has no heir to the throne,” said Mario Sergio Lima, senior Brazil analyst at Medley Global Advisors.

CONSERVATIVE SHIFT

The leading prospects for Brazil’s next generation of leftists, such as Recife Mayor Joao Campos, still seem remote.

“He is not someone for 2026 and maybe not even for 2030 because he is so young,” Lima said.

Other Workers’ Party leaders, such as Finance Minister Fernando Haddad and Education Minister Camilo Santana, lack national prominence, Lima added, and Brazil’s electorate has become more conservative in recent elections.

This became clear during this year’s municipal elections, when the Workers’ Party was defeated by centre-right and right-wing parties across the country.

Lima said Lula appears to be the only left-wing leader who can effectively face a conservative candidate in 2026. “They would have no one. They would really have to rebuild from the ground up, which is not easy and quick to do,” he said. .

Andre Cesar of consultancy Hold Assessoria Legislativa said Lula could soon disappear from the political scene like US President Joe Biden, who made a shock decision this year to abandon his re-election bid after a poor performance in a televised debate.

“The left in Brazil must recycle itself. It needs to modernize, look at Chilean President Gabriel) Boric and become more enterprising,” Cesar said. “Key sectors of the Labor Party still haven’t understood this.”

“Without Lula, the Workers’ Party must make this leap.”

(Reporting by Anthony Boadle, Manuela Andreoni and Eduardo Simoes; Editing by Brad Haynes and Paul Simao)