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The Rebel group HTS has power in Syria with Disziplin takeovers, expert Wimmen. It’s a professional army. Now the Regierungsbildung can be carried out – when the critical assessment is completed.

tagesschau.de: The rebel group Hajat Tahrir al-Scham (HTS) has launched the best kraft paper in Syria. Who is the organization homogeneous?

Heiko Wimmen: Nah everyone, I wanted to know that the HTS is clearly homogeneous. Ihr-anführer Abu Muhammad al-Dscholani has been given the power to unleash or extract the extreme elements in the group.

If you are in the military campaign, you can fight your way through. If you have followed the correct course of action with the Zivilbevölkerung, you will be told by a Disziplin, the man who is normally present in a professional Army team. So it had to take a while. It may be that the young man has a wide variety of interests – if all goes well, then the new line is a fact.

Sour person

Heiko Wimmen is project leader for Syria, Iraq and Lebanon at the International Crisis Group in Beirut. This collaboration is one of the other people for the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin and for the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung in Lebanon.

Read on Rebel groups as the Team of Campaign against Assad

tagesschau.de: Is a domestic group no longer relevant?

Wimmen: As a Junior Partner of the HTS, the Syrian National Army, the SNA, has acquired the Turkish Marionette. If the Turkish economy is expanded, the financing and management of a given situation will be made possible. You are in the north of Aleppo, in the north and in the east.

Dann is the southern rebellion – she has an art that increases local autonomy. If the territory is no longer so good, it is offensive, so the Gegenwehr is not supposed to go south of Damaskus. If all goes well, it will have been a year since the military level was higher than the HTS.

While the rest of the Free Syrian Army will aid the US forces in their own Fittichen hats. The southern part of the country is a US base, as it controls the main connecting street in Iraq. While the FSA dies, his military niece is vergleichen with HTS. Once that is the case, the war campaign is now dying.

“Noch unklar, ob Türkei Gewinner or der Verlierer ist”

tagesschau.de: It is worth using the SNA and the Kurdish Truppen. Who would want to agree?

Wimmen: The Kurds control the entire Euphrates region and are an American partner in protecting IS. The Americans are now signaling the rebels of HTS and SNA, not in the Kurdischen Gebiete vorzurücken.

If we go west of the Euphrates, there is a Kurdish control area, while the SNA has now alienated the Kurds. I think the Kurds will ultimately end up at the end of the Euphrat-zurückziehen-müssen. Zum een, weil es der Türkei and the Rebels in Damascus did not fall, and zum others, weil da Gebiet weil de Euphrat von Arabische Trimmen en nicht van Kurden under de world.

tagesschau.de: The Turks are considered the big winners of the Entwicklungen in Syria. If the HTS has now received multi-ethnic state support that respects the Kurdish region in Syria, will Turkish interest no longer increase?

Wimmen: People are still not aware and can get a good assessment.

It may be the case that Al-Dscholani’s war will be the best in both weeks as the Provinzchef of Idlib and the German abhängiger of the Turks, if that is the case. Now that the control has been carried out, a state is a fact and a relative change of the Turkish economy can take place. If there is interest, if the Kurds suffer a loss, there will be a functional Federal State. A wahrscheinlich has been found in the European and the American-American grundsätzliche intestine. Insofern can regard Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a loser.

Other cases will see al-Dscholani with the organization no longer sanctioned and stigmatized as terrorists. It is possible that the HTS will function better and take on new forms. Because the following organization did not appear on the Sanktionslisten, while it played a major role, the Turkish government was busy. The Turks are a NATO Mitglied, the largest power in the region, and al-Dscholani, who has the Grund, does not believe that the Turks are backing down.

Had the food supply started a long time ago: The Turks have learned a lot from a food supply in Iraq, with a Kurdish Autonomy area of ​​their lives. If a Kurdish Autonomous Region is now established in a Syrian Federation, a separate political struggle may no longer become its own military military activity. Then became a Turkish-Syrian Border of Damascus befehligte Soldaten sthen. It may now be an interest in Turkey.

Insofern is neither unclear, but the Turkei in the first line as a winner or as a loser from the Syrian Neuordnung-hervorgeht. The Frage, who thus states, is, in itself, in Syria at all stable Verhältnisse establishments could be established.

“Erfolgsaussichten bond Regierungsübergabe since not bad”

tagesschau.de: Nun sollen dem HTS in Zusammenarbeit mit Syrian Ministerpräsidenten Mohammed al-Dschalali die Regierungsgeschäfte übergeben. Who sees the consequences of these processes?

Wimmen: The Erfolgsaussichten voor een Regierungsübergabe are not fundamentalsätzlich not bad. Men’s hat Teile der alten Power structures übernommen. The Bisherige Regierung is insultingly prepared, mitzuarbeiten. If the new Machthaber lives together with the bisherigen Leuten, who were not a Verbrechen, then it is a good feeling.

Then the Frage, wen der Chef der Übergangsregierung, Mohammad al-Baschir, as minister-in-chief. Now if there are some serious problems with the HTS, it’s not a problem. There is a war with the Regierungschef of the HTS-controlling areas in Idlib. Der Mann hat Erfahrung mit Regierungsführung.

If there is a representative of power, Leute with other background information will also be a non-Sunni, not Muslims, not even Muslims – and not even as feigenblätter, but with a correct influx – then it is a good idea. Solche Signale in de Anfangsphase zu senden, ist critical, damit Vertrauen won wird.

There comes a fact that now a new description and an obtainable versammlung has been written. The bottom line is that the kommunalwahlen-stattfinden are carried out as quickly as possible, but it is worth entertaining the whole world, then the process will role-play. If it is safe, then Syrian power is on the right track.

“Don’t see, that’s HTS herausgefordert were can”

tagesschau.de: Who is the biggest part of the Libyan Verhältnissen, from a Auseinanderbrechen Syria?

Wimmen: In the indefinite time frame this will not happen again. A situation has arisen in which the HTS is a military actor that has made itself clear in the sattel sitzt. If the moment is not reached, the recovery can be carried out.

The most powerful opposition group against the Kurds. If there is no interest, an inquiry can be carried out knowing that the Turkish language translation will likely be processed. It is an interest in Kurdish history that will generate some of the interest. You will notice that you have a positive feeling.

Here are the Libyan Stories that come, the stories with Australian Akteure, who are fully aware of the project of State Neubildung wollen and could be torpedoed. There are internal Syrian companies that can use this external force and power. The SNA in the North can probably be a vector of destruction for external companies in the fragmentation and provide a reinforcing order for the new power.

Der Einfluss Andere Staaten

tagesschau.de: Will the states of the region be reconciled, will the Syrian war be expanded?

Wimmen: If the SNA soldiers in the North can make their own Zwecke useful, it is the Turks. Aber Erdogan may no longer be interested in a Syrian attack. If you are long enough to have a great deal of support, this is the Syrian flight from the Turks. Dafür braucht man aber Stabilität in Syria.

Iran’s Möglichkeiten, auf Akteure in Syrian Einfluss zu nehmen, stop before the end. Ersten’s money is relatively young in Syria Schiiten. If Iran is in a country protected and on the defensive, when it can no longer frustrate, it will be turned into Syria. The only power of the broader estates, which is a promise of power for the Iranian position, will be restored as the government. You have now greatly shunned Iran.

And Russia has clearly gained its power, Syria’s ex-president Assad will no longer accept his exile. The Russians are of course keen on their military base in Syria’s Middle Lake. They would have a bigger problem than in the first place with the new power that could win a little.

Dafür wird Russland zahlen – und Geld hilft immer. If the new Leute an der Macht von international Sanktionslisten wollen wollen, it is definitely worth it. Russia can no longer collect files, but HTS Terrorists have. If the HTS now has an interesting interest, Russia is positioned differently.

And the Gulf state is a natural for investments. Syria has founded Billiards, and the Gulf state would like to invest in a stable situation.

“Israel tells itself sensibly”

tagesschau.de: And who claim Sie das Vorgehen Israels in Syria?

Wimmen: Israel tells itself later considered. The Israeli hat flew in two days, with hundreds of souls in Syria, and seemed to have been destroyed by Assad’s Armee. It is a legitimate justification, but the new Machthaber cannot use an aggressive signal towards Israel. The Syrian army de facto does not exist and continues to exist in the Zeit Keine Gefahr for Israel. There is no justification you can use to make your money.

This is why Israel occupied the enmilitaristic bullet zone in front of the Golanhöhen. A bulletproof zone in the Syrian territory is an illegally occupied Syrian territory that is not legitimate.

Statistics are interesting for Israel, but a stable Syrian state has gained its power, with the power of Machthabern who is in the Benehmen-setzt. It is an interest in Israel, that Syria relatively enters a functioning army and Damascus controls its territory. When Israel’s time is over, it will take longer.

Das Gespräch führte Christoph Schwanitz, tagesschau.de.