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  • February 14, 2025
College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State – prediction, odds, expert picks, QBs, betting trends and stats

College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State – prediction, odds, expert picks, QBs, betting trends and stats

Outside of an 18-15 Week 3 loss to a 10-2 BYU team, SMU (11-2) advanced through their 60th ACC schedule to remain undefeated in conference play during their first Power Four campaign. A 28-27 victory over @Duke (9-3) produced the lowest win expectancy of SMU’s wins at 74%, demonstrating the dominant nature of the Mustangs’ success. Their offense ranks 4th nationally in SP+, with their lethal pass attack ranking 11th nationally in EPA/dropback and 9th in yards per successful dropback (17.7). The SMU rushing attack is clearly the team’s weakest unit, ranking 73rd in rush success rate and 118th in YAC (2.15). On the defensive side, it couldn’t be more different, as their defensive front holds opponents to 7.4 yards per successful rush (3rd in FBS) and an excellent 0.75 yards before contact is allowed (9th). The SMU secondary is also a good unit ranking 10th in passing percentage and 16th in QBR allowed.

The Nittany Lions (11-2) cruised through the first half and their closest win was a thrilling comeback victory in Week 7, 33-30 over @USC, with PSU posting an 86% win expectancy. Outside of that game, each of their other 10 wins had a near-perfect win expectancy of over 94%, with Penn State showing comprehensive mastery of their B10 regular season schedule, aside from OSU of course. OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense ranks 2nd in success rate, 5th in EPA/play, and 2nd in marginal efficiency. There are shortcomings, however, as PSU’s offense lacks big-play ability, ranking a dismal 92nd in yards per successful play and 63rd in yards per successful rush. The Nittany Lions Defense has once again become elite, ranking 7th in SP+ while their top secondary is allowing just 5.2 yards per dropback (14th). Projected Top 10 2025 NFL Draft selection Abdul Carter leads a pass rush that ranks 25th with a 7.8% sack rate and 9th with a 42.3% pressure rate.

NBC Sports has the latest information and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Listen to the B1G Talk podcast with Todd Blackledge and Noah Eagle for the most compelling storylines in all of college football, featuring the biggest teams on the rise and the latest rankings!

Game details and how to watch the 2024 College Football Playoff: SMU at Penn State

· Date: Saturday December 21, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Location: Beaver Stadium
· City: University Park, PA
· TV/streaming: TNT/Max

Do you want the other games on the College Football Schedule this week? We’ve got you covered here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, location, game time and TV/streaming information so you don’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for SMU at Penn State

  • Moneyline: Penn State (-350), SMU (+270)
  • Spread: Penn State -8.5
  • Top/Bottom: 52.5 points

The spread opened at Penn State -8, but has since widened to -9 in some spots and could reach the key number of -10 by kickoff. PSU’s moneyline fell to -298 and has risen to a high of -350, while SMU has improved from +240 to +270. The game total started at 52.5, but that has since risen to a high of 54.

NBC Sportsbook Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“SMU’s defense has allowed 24+ points in 7 games this year and scored 28+ in all but one game. Both teams were involved in competitive Conference Championship matches where they easily achieved their game total Overs. SMU showed they can play from behind against a strong defense like Clemson, which is the likely scenario against Penn State’s highly efficient offense, which ranks second in success rate. I think these two offenses are running well enough to reach the total of 52.5 games, and I think that will continue to steadily increase as the game gets closer.

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts, Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp, actionable insight, market analysis and statistics to help bettors gain more information before placing their bets.

College Football Playoff Quarterback Matchup – SMU at Penn State

  • Penn State: Five-star QB Drew Allar has been the undisputed starter the past two seasons after interning for a year with Sean Clifford. Allar ranks 12th nationally with an 86th percentile PFF overall score and has been exceptional in his navigation, ranking 8th in FBS with a 71% under pressure rating. As a team, PSU ranks second in success rate and ranks first on 61.8% of their completions (6th). As Allar enters his third and possibly final season in Happy Valley, this could be Penn State’s best chance to secure a National Championship for the foreseeable future.
  • SMU: Heading into the conventional wisdom of fall camp, former four-star QB Preston Stone had reprized his role as SMU’s starting quarterback in 2023. However, QB Kevin Jennings stunned the coaching staff in fall camp to the point that HC Rhett Lashlee promised to give him reps in the season opener. That arrangement lasted three weeks until Jennings finally secured the starting job in their 18-15 loss to BYU. He completed 66.1% of his throws for 3,072 yards, a 22-to-8 ratio and 8.8 yards per attempt, which ranks 7th among Power Four signal callers. He possesses an advanced ability to escape the rush, as evidenced by a pressure-to-sack percentage of 12.2% and a PFF grade of 85.3.

SMU at Penn State: Betting Trends and Recent Stats

  • Star Penn State TE Tyler Warren ranks first among Power Four tight ends with 112 targets. Penn State Tight Ends have produced 19 receptions of 20+ yards this season, second-most among FBS programs.
  • RB Nicholas Singleton has rushed for 10 or more yards on 19.8% on 131 carries this season, ranking him 7th among qualified Power Four running backs. SMU’s defense has allowed 10+ yards on just 7.7% of carries this season, best among ACC defenses.
  • Penn State is 1-6 (.143) against the spread when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season, worst among Power Conference Teams. (Average: .432)
  • Penn State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 364 attempts this season, which ranks 20th among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.1% of attempts this season, best among ACC defenses.
  • Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 195 of 807 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2023 season, best among Power Conference programs.
  • Penn State has allowed passes of more than 40 yards on just 3 of 679 attempts since the 2023 season, best in FBS.
  • SMU has allowed a 72% completion rate in the Red Zone this season – worst among Power Conference Teams.
  • WR Roderick Daniels has committed six fumbles this season, most of them among Power Conference skill players
  • SMU has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 34 of 443 carries this season, 5th best in FBS.
  • SMU’s offense has totaled 3,471 passing yards in 13 games this season, 26th among FBS offenses. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 178.5 passing yards per game this season, 16th among FBS defenses.
  • SMU has allowed 106.5 yards from scrimmage per game to running backs this season, 4th best among Power Conference Teams.
  • QB Kevin Jennings has completed 70% of passes (62 completions/89 net pass attempts) which ranks third best this season, third best among FBS Quarterbacks.

BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship

“Oregon, Georgia and Texas are the favorites to win the College Football Playoff. We will be cheering for the chalk as all three of these teams have had good results for the sportsbook.” – Cameron Drucker, senior trader, BetMGM

Line Movement (open until now)

  • Oregon +900 to +350
  • Texas +1000 to +350
  • Georgia +500 to +375
  • State of Ohio +700 to +475

Highest ticket%

  • State of Ohio 12.6%
  • Texas 10.7%
  • Georgia 9.6%

Highest Handle%

  • State of Ohio 15.9%
  • Alabama 13.1%
  • Georgia 13.0%

Biggest obligations

  • Alabama
  • Colorado
  • State of Ohio

College Football talk takes over Bet the Edge every Thursday all season long. BET THE EDGE is your source for all things sports betting. Get all the insights from Vaughn Dalzell, Eric Froton and Brad Thomas on Thursdays at 6:00 PM ET here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

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