Rico Dowdle enters Week 15 as the most underrated rusher in the NFL

The Dallas Cowboys haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the NFL playoffs, but they enter their Week 15 matchup against the Carolina Panthers needing a miracle to get there. However, miracles don’t seem to exist in the 2024 season for Dallas. They found a way to do that losing to the Cincinnati Bengalsand the lowly three-win Panthers are favored for the first time in their last 33 games.

Dallas is in the tail end of a down season that has featured their quarterback and many of their young and emerging players stars lost to injuries. They need to keep an eye on the future of these games even as they refuse to give in to a doomed playoff chase. While not originally a sure part of the long-term vision, Rico Dowdle has recently shown that he could be one of those guys.

Many will wonder why it took so long for Dowdle to find himself in the lead back role. It could be that the coach believed in a committee, that the front office wanted Ezekiel Elliott to get contact, or that he was concerned about Dowdle’s workload due to his injury history.

He had more than 12 attempts just once in his first nine games, even though he was a top-10 rusher in passing percentage and averaged 4.3 yards per attempt. Yet he couldn’t even get 50% of the carries through the first eleven weeks.

Starting with the game against the Washington Commanders, Dowdle has taken and produced 70% of the carries. He went from averaging 10 attempts and 40 yards per game to 19 carries for 109 yard averages.

He ran for over 40 yards above expected (RYOE) against both the New York Giants and the Cincinnati. Comparing him to Detroit Lions first-round pick Jahmyr Gibbs over the past three weeks, Dowdle has more yards rushing, yards after contact, forced missed tackles and one fewer run for 10 or more yards.

Only three running backs on the season have a passing percentage of 54% or better and more than 4.5 yards per carry. Dowdle is one; the others are Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. If extrapolated over 17 games, Dowdle would have rushed for 1,853 yards on 323 attempts and scored six times.

With his next matchup against the Panthers, the team with the worst defense in the NFL, Dowdle has a chance to extend his streak of stellar performances even further.

You can find Mike Crum on Twitter @cdbiggetje or YouTube on the Across the Cowboys podcast.